Kevin Vogelsang

I think about the Future a lot.  I enjoy it, but it’s something I just do.  I don’t seem to have much of a say in the matter.

When thinking about the Future, I do use structured approaches that are utilized in other forms of problem solving.  Here’s some structured approaches for  thinking about the future:

1. Thinking about constraints. What are the constraints that will influence the events that occur in the future?  For instance, are their aspects of human nature that will not change? This is a top down approach.  Constraints allow us to narrow the space of possible events. By making assumptions, and attempting to test those assumptions, you can learn a lot just from that exercise.
2. Data. Data extrapolation can be a helpful exercise.  However, I think looking at data is more valuable to see what has happened in the past and what is the current state of things.  By doing this, you can attempt to think and learn about where people were in the past, where they thought things were going, and where they actually went.  Data combined with a little history also allows you to understand how people make predictions, and the mistakes they make.  Ray Kurzweil’s work is a good example of data-driven futurology.
3. Causal Reasoning. (I use “causal” because reason is used in all of these).  If there’s a specific event that could happen, or is happening, by thinking through steps in the causal chain, we may come to certain conclusions that we would not have come to otherwise.

These are the structured approaches. Ideally, you make use of all these, and you are able to get a glimpse of convergence of the conclusions you come to through each.

There is also another method: intuition.  Humans possess abilities of pattern recognition that subconsciously lead us to ideas.  We are constantly making and testing predictions throughout the day, and we do it with no deep thought, or much of any thought at all (“If I order food now, it’ll be there by the time I get home”).  Of course, the information and patterns we gather through all other means and experiences play a role in our intuition, so if we’re serious, we should also analyze what types of scenarios our intuition is capable of predicting.

There’s another side to intuition: vision.  The Future is what the doers make it, and our vision will lead us to the Future.  This is why I capitalize “Future.”  It won’t turn out exactly how we thought, but vision will guide us.

As with all things, we should approach these with humility and understanding of the shortcomings and weakness of the human mind.

-Kevin
3.9.2009

Image by CyboRoZ via Flickr

Imagine you’re stuck on an island.  Just you, a few others, and the wilderness of the island.

You’re primary source of food is fish. You catch the fish by sticking them with a sharpened stick.  It takes a long time to catch fish this way.  You miss a lot.  It’s tough to hit them hard enough.

You have a few minutes a day that don’t have to be focused on getting food and water.  During this time, you look for rocks that you could use to make a pointed tip.  Eventually, you achieve this.  You then are able to find the right plants to attach it to your “fishing spear.”  Catching fish is a little more efficient now.

You now have more time to experiment with the plant fibers you discovered in search for a way to create the fishing spear.  Eventually, you learn to make a net.  Catching fish can now be done by anyone.  You’re now able to pass the fishing task off to someone that is less capable.

You can now spend your time surveying the island.  You find rocks that can be made sharper.  You discover deer on the island.  You learn how to kill the deer.  You have a new source of food and materials.  You’re now able to make canoes, which are much faster than wooden rafts.  You can now travel faster and go farther.

~

This is an example of the compounding returns of knowledge.

We observe it now, more often than ever.  Technology is created that enables non-specialists to perform a needed task on a larger scale (like the fishing net in the example.)  Technology also allows us to discover new technology.  We see this in fabrication, software, and soon, in brain-scanning preparation.

We also have empirical proof that it exists.  Ray Kurzweil has collected some incredibly interesting data on the exponential acceleration of technology. (You can find videos of Ray talking about this phenomena on Ted Talks.)

However, we tend to forget this phenomenon on the level of the individual level.  When we learn and gain new skills, we gain resources.  And resources can lead to more resources.  People think about this more in terms of monetary investing.  But it’s true elsewhere.

So what does this mean for us?

If you spend a little more time working, and study just a little harder each day, you’ll find yourself much further along.

-Kevin
2.25.2010

This post is very important to me. It is the 2nd part of a set of posts that began with Our Sphere of Influence. A Sphere of Influence is our realm where we matter most.  Check out the post for further discussion.  These posts hinge on the concept. Do provide your input by commenting.

Technology gives us new capabilities.  Consequently, technology has an important side effect: it makes our Sphere of Influence more accessible to us.  And when a group of people gain access to their Sphere of Influence, communities form.

I don’t think people have thought of it this way, but this is the framework for most community-driven movements:  a group of people focused on their Sphere of Influence that connect with each other.

The initial motivator for getting involved in a community may vary (they may not even be aware of the community), but people recognize their Sphere of Influence within a community of people when they begin to be acknowledged for their work.  This recognition pushes them forward as they realize the importance of their work and realize their work matters.

In the open-source software movement, programmers needed better ways to use a computer, a piece of technology that was highly enabling for them.  They also wanted to have greater control over their tools, to make the tools better, and to learn.  The community pushes this forward as they recognize and appreciate each others work.  They know their work matters and they benefit from the work of others.

The Wikipedian community spends huge amounts of time contributing to Wikipedia.   They may begin by wanting to contribute to the project.  They’re pushed forward when they see the impact/appreciation of their work through recognition and gaining higher command of their realm within Wikipedia.

Technology has another side effect: it makes new Spheres of Influence available. New technologies eventually lead to social changes that cause new communities to form.  A given function becomes democratized and community-driven.

With rapid prototyping technologies becoming affordable, a much greater number of people can take part in designing and fabricating physical things: an open-source hardware community is forming.

The same is also happening with biology research.  There’s a Do-It-Yourself biology community forming completely outside of academia.

Gov 2.0 represents the true democratization of government.  Citizens don’t take part in government by voting for someone. They just implement functions themselves using government resources.

When new Spheres of Influence become available, we’re able to choose one that better suits us.   Entire industries and social constructs are being completely disrupted by technologies that allow  people to do it themselves.  Communities of people form that are willing to do it for free because it’s what they like to do, and its where they feel they matter most.  It’s tough for businesses to compete with, unless they daringly change their business models or create new ones.

But, it’s not impossible for businesses to cope.  The open-source software companies did it….

In the following posts, I’ll talk more about the application of these concepts.

Your comments are important and will help me refine these thoughts as I continue to write about them.  Give me your thoughts by emailing me at KVogelsang11@gmail.com or leaving a comment.

-Kevin
2.8.2010

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the trend of disintermediation and its relation to the provision of capabilities to a larger audience.

An astute friend of mine, Alexander McMath, commented the following via FaceBook:

The flipside to the rise of disintermediation solutions usually has something to do with problems regarding quality assurance, scaling, and transactional authority (where applicable). It’s the idea that some value was being created by the intermediary.

Alexander hit the nail on the head with this one and stole the words right out of my mouth.

When a tool becomes highly accessible to a large group of people with low costs (little time, effort, etc.), a lot of people start using it.  A percentage of the users use the tool very well and create value.  A larger group of people use the tool sporadically and perhaps poorly, creating noise if not negative value.

The internet is the example of thousands of agents interacting on a platform.  Thank goodness for Google.  Google lets us find web pages that are relevant to our search terms (oh yeah, it’s a “decision engine” too…).  Google acts as a filtering tool.  But we’re only at the beginning of search on the web, and we’re only at the beginning of the need for better filtering.

Addendum:

I was at an informal meet-up with members of the Atlanta Technology Angels today, and Ron Conway, “the Godfather of Silicon Valley”, and his current investment focus on “real time data” services (Twitter is the primary example) came up at some point in the discussion.  If these real time data services are to be the next billion dollar market, bet your bottom dollar that there will only be an exponential need in better filtering.

Kevin
7.23.2009

I believe this technically means “cutting out the middleman”.  I tend to think of it simply as taking out steps and removing bottlenecks in a process.

Disintermediation is a powerful trend and one that I pay close attention to.  Disintermediation can be used as a tool to improve efficiency.  But, it also often goes hand-in-hand with the empowerment of people.

I started paying closer attention to “disintermediation trends” back in January 2008 for two reasons: the Google Maps API and the iPhone SDK.

One day I was looking up something on Google Maps when I had a thought, you could do some very cool  and useful stuff with this.  You don’t need to spend millions of dollars collecting geographic information in order to create geospatial representations of data anymore.  (And I think geospatial representations offer incredible tool for helping people understand large scale data sets, we’re just at the tip of the iceberg with this one.)

About a month later, I learned about the iPhone Software Development Kit, that allowed “third party” developers to create applications for the iPhone.  Anyone willing to learn to code could make their own mobile application.  When I read about the iPhone SDK, I thought to myself, this is basically what’s already happened on desktop computers, open standards are developed and platforms are made that allow developers to more easily contribute. But, connecting these dots got me going on this concept of disintermediation.  It’s happened very quickly in areas related to computers.  The internet’s affect on communication and information flow is the major one we’ve felt.  But, it’s started happening in other areas now.  Here are two very interesting forms of disintermediation:

• Fabrication. Neil Gershenfeld of MIT is creating what’s called Fab Labs.   A Fab Lab is a facility equipped with the necessary tools to allow people to make almost anything.  He’s essentially trying to open source hardware and the ability to make things, and I think that is simply beautiful.  When I was in school, I wish I’d had a place to just build stuff.But here’s something that’s more interesting, Professor Gershenfeld is trying to design these Fab Labs such that, with the help of some basic consumables, they can make themselves. Think about it.
• Biotech Research. My lovely mother handed me a newspaper clipping one day when I was back home in Kentucky.  The newspaper highlighted a community biotech research lab in Cambridge, MA.  (I can’t remember what it’s called.  If you’ve heard of it, post the link in the comments.)  I’ve since read about other disintermediation trends surrounding biotech.  I came across one story about a California computer scientist who ordered the necessary kits and now spends her time doing biology research in her apartment.

In both cases, the capability of creating was made available to people.  Steps or difficulties are removed in a process and capabilities are gained by a greater audience.  This is powerful and beautiful.  And as an entrepreneur and someone that just wants build valuable and cool stuff, this is a concept to keep tabs on.  Leave a comment if you come across other examples that you like.

Kevin
7.10.2009