I think about the Future a lot.  I enjoy it, but it’s something I just do.  I don’t seem to have much of a say in the matter.

When thinking about the Future, I do use structured approaches that are utilized in other forms of problem solving.  Here’s some structured approaches for  thinking about the future:

1. Thinking about constraints. What are the constraints that will influence the events that occur in the future?  For instance, are their aspects of human nature that will not change? This is a top down approach.  Constraints allow us to narrow the space of possible events. By making assumptions, and attempting to test those assumptions, you can learn a lot just from that exercise.
2. Data. Data extrapolation can be a helpful exercise.  However, I think looking at data is more valuable to see what has happened in the past and what is the current state of things.  By doing this, you can attempt to think and learn about where people were in the past, where they thought things were going, and where they actually went.  Data combined with a little history also allows you to understand how people make predictions, and the mistakes they make.  Ray Kurzweil’s work is a good example of data-driven futurology.
3. Causal Reasoning. (I use “causal” because reason is used in all of these).  If there’s a specific event that could happen, or is happening, by thinking through steps in the causal chain, we may come to certain conclusions that we would not have come to otherwise.

These are the structured approaches. Ideally, you make use of all these, and you are able to get a glimpse of convergence of the conclusions you come to through each.

There is also another method: intuition.  Humans possess abilities of pattern recognition that subconsciously lead us to ideas.  We are constantly making and testing predictions throughout the day, and we do it with no deep thought, or much of any thought at all (“If I order food now, it’ll be there by the time I get home”).  Of course, the information and patterns we gather through all other means and experiences play a role in our intuition, so if we’re serious, we should also analyze what types of scenarios our intuition is capable of predicting.

There’s another side to intuition: vision.  The Future is what the doers make it, and our vision will lead us to the Future.  This is why I capitalize “Future.”  It won’t turn out exactly how we thought, but vision will guide us.

As with all things, we should approach these with humility and understanding of the shortcomings and weakness of the human mind.

-Kevin
3.9.2009